Analysis + Prediction

NFL Week 10: Every Game Previewed

PICKS ONLY AT THE BOTTOM!

Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos come into this game refreshed after a bye week and riding high from their victory over Kansas City on their home turf. However, the Broncos are grappling with internal issues that could throw a wrench into their plans. On the other side of the field, they face the Buffalo Bills, a team with its back against the wall, desperately fighting to secure a playoff spot. It's important to note that late in the season, struggling teams often lose their drive, but teams like the Bills, who harbor playoff aspirations despite battling a slew of injuries, still have a fighting spirit. Unfortunately for the Broncos, the euphoria from their Chiefs win may be short-lived.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns

The Baltimore Ravens are quickly emerging as a powerhouse and a serious contender for the Super Bowl. Much of their success can be attributed to the brilliant play of Lamar Jackson, who is steering the ship with both intelligence and immense talent. The Ravens boast one of the NFL's most intimidating rushing games, coupled with a tenacious defense that has been nothing short of dominant in recent outings. This sets them apart as a force to be reckoned with. On the other side, the Cleveland Browns are basking in the afterglow of a significant win against an unfamiliar quarterback, but this triumph is unlikely to hold much weight against the Ravens' defense.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Commanders

The Seattle Seahawks may have fallen to the scorching hot Ravens in their last game, but writing them off this week would be a mistake, especially when they're playing on their home turf. Betting against Seattle at home is a risky proposition. The Seahawks possess an aggressive, physical defense that is poised to capitalize on the weaknesses of the Washington Commanders. The Commanders are a team on the decline, and it's evident that they're due for regression to the mean, especially as they've traded away key defensive assets during the deadline. Unfortunately for Washington, this game could serve as a harsh reminder of their status as a struggling team.

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers may have notched two consecutive wins, outscoring their opponents 57-19, but it's crucial to examine the context. Those victories came against teams dealing with quarterback injuries, including the Chicago Bears and New York Jets. While technically wins, these victories may not accurately reflect the Chargers' strength. Now, they face the Detroit Lions, a more formidable opponent. Despite the Chargers' underwhelming defense, the balanced offense of the Lions is expected to exploit Los Angeles' vulnerabilities. However, Justin Herbert's ability to move the ball should keep the game competitive, especially as they enjoy the advantage of playing at home, even if they lack a true home field advantage.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

The Dallas Cowboys are poised for a comeback after a narrow loss to the Eagles. Much of their success hinges on the performance of Dak Prescott, who shone against the Eagles. The Giants, on the other hand, are grappling with injuries that have severely hampered their offense. It's unlikely that they can match up to the Cowboys' effective defense, which has proven itself against weaker opponents. Neither Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes could stroll into MetLife Stadium on Sunday and lead this struggling Giants team to victory.

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings

The New Orleans Saints are the top upset pick of the week, and the Minnesota Vikings have newfound life, largely attributed to Joshua Dobbs' leadership. This spark comes on the heels of a victory without star receiver Justin Jefferson. However, it's crucial to exercise caution when backing the Saints as favorites, as betting trends suggest. The Vikings are in the midst of a renewed playoff push, and the odds may very well be in their favor. Betting against Dennis Allen's team when it comes to covering the spread hasn't been a profitable endeavor, with a mere 26% chance of covering as favorites. As for Derek Carr, he's struggled mightily, with a 2-6-1 record against the spread. Fading the Vikings in this scenario might not be the wisest choice, especially as Minnesota continues their quest for a playoff spot.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers celebrated snapping a four-game losing streak with a victory over a quarterback who's no longer even in the league. Their inability to score more than 20 points during that skid and in three out of eight games this season raises concerns. Now, they face a Pittsburgh team that excels in these situations, particularly against a quarterback as easy to scheme against as Jordan Love. The Packers' ongoing quarterback woes are far from resolved, and their win last week likely won't provide a long-term solution. Questions about their quarterback situation continue to linger in the locker room, and the first turnover is just around the corner. With a healthy Kenny Pickett, the Steelers have won three of their last four games, including a victory against Baltimore, establishing themselves as one of the conference's top teams. Pittsburgh's defense allows them to take calculated risks on offense, and Mike Tomlin likely has some strategic plans to counter Love.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a bye week, riding a five-game winning streak orchestrated by Doug Pederson. Their ability to adapt quickly during games, particularly on offense, has granted them breathing room for their defense. This streak included two significant road wins, making Jacksonville a formidable opponent. Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers are just returning from injury and face the potential absence of key players like Zay Jones and Deebo Samuel. San Francisco desperately needs their playmakers to secure a win in this game.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans

Rookie quarterback CJ Stroud has been nothing short of phenomenal, displaying remarkable poise and leading the Cincinnati Bengals to a significant recent victory. The Bengals are riding high on a wave of momentum, especially after that crucial win. Now, they take on a challenging Houston team, and it's expected that they'll maintain their momentum in the race for a wild card spot.

New York Jets vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders are favored over the New York Jets, primarily due to their overall team strength and the presence of quarterback Aidan O'Connell. The Jets have struggled offensively in recent games. The Raiders have responded positively to their new coach, while the Jets' performance has been nothing short of disappointing. In their last game, the Jets handed over a victory to the Chargers in a rather embarrassing fashion, highlighting their offensive woes.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

The Indianapolis Colts' performance hinges on their ability to avoid turnovers, while rumors of Bill Belichick's potential departure are creating turmoil for the New England Patriots. New England's recent loss to a weakened Washington team raises doubts about their ability to rally and succeed. It's a grim situation up in New England, with fanbases preparing to celebrate yet another loss.

Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers

The Chicago Bears are set to capitalize on their growing chemistry, with Tyson Bagent establishing strong connections with his receivers; Justin Fields is not ready to return for the Bears. The Carolina Panthers, on the other hand, are struggling, particularly with Bryce Young's difficulties at quarterback. Scoring against the Bears is expected to be a daunting task for Carolina.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Tennessee Titans

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a recent loss that suggests deeper underlying issues. In contrast, the Tennessee Titans, under the guidance of Mike Vrabel, are expected to be more combative and better prepared. With Will Levis taking the helm as the Titans' starting quarterback, they could have the edge they need to overcome the Buccaneers.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals are eager to improve with Kyler Murray's return, despite ongoing defensive struggles. However, there's uncertainty surrounding Murray's performance as he returns from a serious injury, which could limit his mobility. The Atlanta Falcons have experienced a recent dip in performance, losing their last two games. This game presents a close matchup, but the Cardinals, with home-field advantage and a potentially more dynamic quarterback, may have a slight edge.

PICKS ONLY (UPSETS MARKED WITH*)

Buffalo Bills (-345) vs Denver Broncos

Baltimore Ravens (-245) vs Cleveland Browns

Seattle Seahawks (-258) vs Washington Commanders

Detroit Lions (-135) at Los Angeles Chargers

Dallas Cowboys (-1100) vs New York Giants

New Orleans Saints* (-135) at Minnesota Vikings

Pittsburgh Steelers (-166) vs Green Bay Packers

San Francisco 49ers* (-160) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Cincinnati Bengals (-295) vs Houston Texans

New York Jets* (-118) at Las Vegas Raiders

Indianapolis Colts* (-120) at New England Patriots

Chicago Bears (-190) vs. Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers* (-113) vs Tennessee Titans

Atlanta Falcons* (-117) at Arizona Cardinals

Analysis + Prediction

Player Prop Bets

Mike Evans, Buccaneers Anytime TD (+125 or better projected odds)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers' wide receiver, Mike Evans, has been a consistent scoring threat this season, finding the end zone on five occasions while catching 37 of his 60 targets for a total of 594 yards (See: Mike Evans looking for another 1,000 yard season!). His scoring prowess has been evident in five out of the eight games played so far, and even though he was held off the score sheet last week against the Houston Texans secondary, the previous two weeks saw him registering touchdowns.

This week, Evans is poised to capitalize on a favorable matchup against the struggling Tennessee Titans defense, which has had difficulties defending against the pass. The Titans have surrendered 1,423 yards and seven touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in the first eight games of the 2023 season. Just last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers' Dointae Johnson had a field day against the Titans secondary, amassing 90 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions.

Evans has consistently exploited weak defenses, scoring against teams like the Vikings, Bears, Eagles, and a depleted Bills secondary. Despite facing a robust Texans pass defense last week, we observed a +160 price on Evans for an anytime touchdown. Given the more favorable matchup this week, expect shorter odds, making Evans an enticing pick for an anytime TD at +125 or better.

TJ Hockenson, Vikings Anytime TD (+225 or better projected line)

Minnesota Vikings' tight end, TJ Hockenson, has been a reliable target in the passing game, hauling in an impressive 60 passes on 80 targets for 547 yards and three touchdowns in the first nine games of the 2023 regular season. Even in his debut with a new quarterback last week against the Atlanta Falcons, Hockenson managed to catch seven passes on 12 targets for 69 yards.

Hockenson's ability to find the end zone could shine this week against a New Orleans Saints defense that is susceptible to tight ends. While the Saints are renowned for their strong secondary, they have allowed the MOST touchdowns to opposing tight ends, tallying five thus far. In fact, two of those touchdowns came in the most recent game as the Chicago Bears' Cole Kmet torched them for 55 yards on six receptions.

Over the past six weeks, the Saints have permitted tight ends to score in four of those games, with players like Drew Ogletree, Dalton Schultz, and Cade Otton all finding the end zone. Hockenson's target volume has surged, especially since Justin Jefferson went on the injured reserve list with a hamstring injury. In his last four games, he has seen 8, 12, 9, and 12 targets, and this trend is likely to continue with Josh Dobbs relying on Hockenson as a reliable option.

While Hockenson is listed as questionable with a rib injury that he played through last week, he is expected to suit up. Considering last week's +245 line on a Hockenson TD, it's reasonable to anticipate slightly reduced odds this week due to the matchup. Keep an eye on Hockenson's practice status, and consider placing your bet on anything +225 or better.

Education

Interpreting Public Betting and Money Percentages

As the NFL season progresses, savvy bettors shift their focus from early-season anomalies to identifying teams hitting their stride. This section delves into the strategic nuances of leveraging midseason form and interpreting market signals to enhance betting decisions.

Capitalizing on Midseason Momentum Midseason form is a critical indicator of a team's potential trajectory. While early-season records can be misleading, recent performances often paint a more accurate picture of a team's capabilities. Teams that have demonstrated a pattern of improvement, whether it's through offensive consistency, defensive solidity, or special teams' contributions, can offer value, especially when they're undervalued by the betting public.

Interpreting Public Betting and Money Percentages The relationship between public betting percentages and where the money lies can uncover hidden value. When a disproportionate amount of bets are placed on one side, yet the money is significantly heavier on the other, it suggests that experienced bettors, or "sharps," see something the public doesn't. This discrepancy can be a beacon for value bets, as sharp action often moves lines and odds, providing opportunities for astute bettors to follow the money. You can browse public betting and money percentages here.

Decoding Sharp Action Signals Sharp action signals are like the secret whispers of the betting world. They emerge when there's a notable difference between the number of bets and the amount of money wagered. For instance, if 70% of the bets are on Team A, but 70% of the money is on Team B, it indicates that the few who are betting on Team B are wagering much larger amounts. These bettors are likely to have done their homework, and their confidence is reflected in their substantial bets. Identifying such patterns can guide you towards more informed and potentially profitable betting decisions.

Incorporating these insights into your betting strategy can provide a significant edge. By focusing on midseason form, you're banking on the notion that recent performance is a reliable indicator of future results. By understanding public betting and money percentages, you're peeking into the collective mindset of the betting community. And by recognizing sharp action signals, you're learning from the moves of the most successful players in the game. Together, these strategies form a powerful toolkit for any bettor looking to make smart, data-driven wagers.

Fantasy Corner

Week 10 Sleeper Picks

Navigating through the fantasy football season, Week 10 presents pivotal choices for those vying for playoff spots. This week's sleeper picks spotlight players poised for a breakout, such as Jaylen Warren, Kyler Murray, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who are lined up for potentially impactful games. Sleeper picks always carry an element of risk, but the potential rewards are enticing, particularly in DFS where their lower cost could prove to be a strategic boon. These sleeper picks are the dark horses of Week 10, potentially unlocking high rewards for fantasy managers willing to take a calculated gamble on their lineups.

Fantasy RB Sleepers Week 10

• Tyler Allgeier, Falcons @ Cardinals: Allgeier has shown a steady hand, with double-digit fantasy points and an average of 19 touches over recent games. He's slated to remain heavily involved against a Cardinals defense that has been accommodating to running backs.

• Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders at Seahawks: Robinson's bruising running style could be just the ticket against Seattle, with a touchdown well within reach.

• Jaylen Warren, Steelers vs. Packers: Coming off a standout game with 113 total yards, Warren is emerging as a viable flex option, especially facing a Packers defense that has shown vulnerabilities.

Fantasy QB Sleepers Week 10

• Kyler Murray, Cardinals vs. Falcons: Murray's return from injury comes at an opportune time as he faces a Falcons defense that has struggled against quarterbacks, setting the stage for a potentially explosive return.

• Josh Dobbs, Vikings vs. Saints: With his ability to extend plays and a cadre of weapons at his disposal, Dobbs could put up significant numbers against the Saints.

• Taylor Heinicke, Falcons @ Cardinals: Heinicke's promising start last week could be a sign of things to come, offering hope for a repeat performance or better against the Cardinals.

Fantasy WR Sleepers Week 10

• Khalil Shakir, Bills vs. Broncos: Shakir's uptick in targets and production could persist, especially against a Broncos defense that has been less than stellar.

• Rashid Shaheed, Saints @ Vikings: Shaheed's explosive speed and potential for big plays make him a lurking threat against the Vikings.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks vs. Commanders: In a favorable matchup, Smith-Njigba could make a notable impact, even with the presence of established receivers like Lockett and Metcalf.

Fantasy TE Sleepers Week 10

• Hunter Henry, Patriots vs. Colts: Henry's share of targets suggests a potentially fruitful outing against the Colts.

• Trey McBride, Cardinals vs. Falcons: With improved quarterback play courtesy of Murray's return, McBride could see an uptick in productivity.

• Gerald Everett, Chargers vs. Lions: Despite a disappointing previous game, Everett has a prime opportunity to bounce back against the Lions.

Fantasy Defense Sleepers Week 10

• Seattle Seahawks vs. Commanders: The Seahawks defense could take advantage of the Commanders' offensive woes.

• Cincinnati Bengals vs. Texans: The Bengals' defensive unit has a chance to capitalize on a Texans offense that tends to rely heavily on passing.

• Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jets: The Raiders' revamped defensive strategy could continue to show positive results, this time against the Jets.

That's a wrap for now, we hope you enjoyed today’s newsletter!

We appreciate your continued support, and we'll catch you in the next edition.

-Coach and The Locker Room Staff