🏆 Super Bowl Special

Welcome to this Special Edition of the Locker Room: As we are only a few hours away from kickoff of Super Bowl LVIII, we want to give you guys our final insights and projections! The vast majority of us watching today don’t have a dawg in the fight and quite frankly, I just want to make money by the end of it all, so let’s get to it! Be sure to scroll all the way down to check out our LRT+ plays for the big game!

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NFL
Super Bowl LVIII

Pick: Chiefs +2, ML Sprinkle
The 49ers barely survived two come from behind home victories against NFC North opponents (mid). Their run defense was gashed in both games giving up a over 300yds combined in both games. On the other hand, The Chiefs are coming off back-to-back road wins against ELITE quarterbacks, including both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson… and they have done so in convincing fashion. The Chiefs have been doing this for years now and are very comfortable playing under the lights. Look yourself in the mirror and ask yourself this, “Is Mahomes really going to lose to Purdy?” The only way Mahomes loses to Purdy is if this whole thing is actually scripted like Adam Schefter said… Schefter Shorts … In that case, our entire thesis is invalid, but I’m banking on it being real, so give me Chiefs, and I guess I’ll take the points.
- Mahomes is 10-1 as an underdog in his career.
- Maxx Crosby quoted “Hard to bet against Mahomes, he’s the best in the league until someone else can prove it.”
- Andy Reid is the GOAT coming off of a bye week.

Line movement: 
The spread opened at 49ers -2.5, the people must be in my camp because the line quickly got bet down to 49ers -1 before slamming on the breaks and reversing course. The line sits at 49ers -1.5 as we release this but don’t be surprised to see it keep moving. Sharps are coming in on the 49ers, public is backing Chiefs.

Game Total: Open 47.5 → Currently 47
- Sharps and we included like the under in this one. The total has come down half a point and it seems justified. This is a different Chiefs group than the past; they don’t rely on putting up 30+ points a game, and their defense is INSANE. Of course, the 49ers defense has all of the names and talent to be great, we just didn’t see that in the NFC championship. I’m sure a couple of weeks to prep to get ready for this will have both defenses firing on all cylinders and this game will be won in the trenches. Personally, I am staying away from the total but if you want action on it, this is what we know!

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LRT+
Player Props

Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 (-115) rushing attempts: 1.5 Units

• Mahomes has eclipsed this number in 60% of his playoff career. It’s no secret that when the lights shine brighter, you pull out all the stops. He had 6 carries in each of their last two playoff games (Ravens & Bills). He’s had at least 5 carries in all three of his Super Bowl appearances. The only way I see this not coming through is if the Chiefs absolutely demolish the 49ers but even still that leaves the door open to some kneel downs at the end of the game. I’m backing this one every which way that I can. 

Isaiah Pacheco Over 65 (-110)  rushing yards: 1 Units

• This number is crazy, the 49ers gave up 5.6 and 5.1 yards per carry against the Packers and Lions respectively, allowing the groups to combine for a total 262 yards on the ground! Meanwhile, Pacheco is an absolute BEAST, and has eclipsed that number in 6 straight contests. He has relatively no one taking carries from him, especially in this big of a game. The only real threat here is injury of course, which is why this is a lower unit play than the other picks. 

Kyle Juszcyk Over 4.5 (-105) receiving yards: 2 Units

• This is our absolute favorite play. This line is disrespectful… in SB 54, Juszcyk went for 39yds, 3 receptions on 4 targets and a touchdown. The guy is the glue of this 49ers team and he has been a part of this comeback journey. He knows how to play under the lights and always receives an uptick in usage during big moments in the playoffs. Last round, in the NFC Championship comeback victory, he ran 17 routes and went for 33 yards with 2 receptions on 3 targets. In his 3 game career against the Chiefs, he is averaging 37 receiving yards per game. I understand why this prop is so low, based on the few targets he receives. However, you can count on him seeing ¾ targets today and I love our chances with 1 or 2 of those turning into the 10/15yd gainer we need to cash this one.

THE PEOPLE
Chiefs to Outscore CMC.

Last edition we asked you guys what the best bet for today is… 33% of y’all said Chiefs +2 while 29% said CMC tuddy was an absolute lock! In third place we had the 16% say the total under 47.5.

FORBES
Meet the Families: SBLVIII Edition

Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter is for entertainment and informational purposes only and is not intended as gambling advice. Betting can be addictive and lead to significant financial loss. We do not guarantee the accuracy of betting predictions and disclaim any liability for any personal loss directly or indirectly caused by following the tips. You must be of legal gambling age to engage in betting. We encourage responsible gambling. If you have a gambling problem, please contact 1-800-662-4357.

That's a wrap for now, we hope you enjoyed today’s newsletter!

We appreciate your continued support, and we'll catch you in the next edition.

-Coach and The Locker Room Staff