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Today’s Playbook

🏈 Super Bowl
📖 Education
🏀 NBA Weekend
⛳ WM Pheonix Open
💰 Degen

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NFL
Super Bowl LVIII: Showdown Time

Let’s pick up where we left off last week:
- The 49ers eked out two home victories against NFC North opponents and had to battle back in both games. The Chiefs have beaten 3, 11-win teams, including both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in their home stadiums… and they have looked convincing while doing so. The Chiefs have been doing this for years now and are very comfortable playing under the lights. Look yourself in the mirror and ask yourself this, “Is Patrick Mahomes really going to lose to Brock Purdy on a neutral field?”

Unbiased strengths and weaknesses for each gladiator:
49ers - Strengths:
- Boast the number one offense in expected points added per play and success rate during the regular season.
- Strong offensive performance under head coach Kyle Shanahan.
- Historically excellent in certain areas, such as their defense and play-calling.
- Most loaded locker room across all positions.
- Experience falling short in this position, making it back and now ready to climb the mountain (Like national champion Michigan)

49ers - Weaknesses:
- Defensive performance has taken a step backward, partly due to playing alongside a more explosive offense.
- Tend to struggle in big moments and under pressure.
- Recent defensive weaknesses that can be exploited by the Chiefs.

Chiefs - Strengths:
- Considerably better in the playoffs than the regular season, particularly on defense, peaking at the right time.
- Best defense in the league.
- Kadarius Toney ruled out.
- Best tight end of all time (debatable). 
- Quarterback Patrick Mahomes' ability to excel under pressure.
- More playoff hardened and experienced as a team, feeding off of villain role.

Chiefs - Weaknesses:
- Perceived weakness against the run (containing CMC is much different than Lamar J).
- Less explosive but more balanced offensive profile compared to previous seasons.
- Catching the football.

• Look I’m just going to say it… unless this thing is rigged, I don’t see the Chiefs losing, but let’s take the points just to be safe… If you have case for the 49ers, I’d love to hear it… Hit us up on X (twitter) @lockeroomtalk_

Line movement: betting stats remain unchanged from last week
The spread opened at 49ers -2.5, the people must be in my camp because the line quickly got bet down to 49ers -1 before slamming on the breaks and reversing course. The line has sat at 49ers -2 all week but don’t be surprised to see more volatility as we get within 48 hours of kickoff. Again - This is EASILY going to be the most bet on sporting event of all time… Currently the public is on the Chiefs as well with 69% of the tickets and 75% of the money… leaving the door cracked open for the Sharps to be filing in on the Niners.

Props: From the Natty Anthem O/U to T-Swizzle, We’ve Got You Covered

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EDUCATION
Can’t Spell ParLay Without the L

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• Let’s be honest, who doesn’t love parlays? There’s nothing better than compounding the odds (in favor of the books) and then sweating buckets as you watch your anchor (the last leg of your lay) bring home the victory! It’s magical, I for sure can remember numerous epic parlays that I have hit during my career. Hopefully you do as well!

• But here’s the bottom line… Books love when you bet parlays (along with teasers) because that’s where they make their money. Think about this logically, the odds are already stacked against us for a 1:1 bet (because of the juice and the fact that people typically lose), so each bet you add to a “lay” just increases your chances of losing. It’s simple math and the bookmakers wouldn’t allow it if it was not in their best interest to do so… I mean why do you think everywhere you look, these ad campaigns boast the 1 in a million “Same game parlay” that “Covered Johnny’s student loans, car payment, and mortgage!” because it’s a suckers bet, and if you want to be a profitable bettor, stay as far away as possible from teasers and parlays.

• Now of course, we’re going to bet parlays so for context, I’ll share my relationship with lays… I only make parlays with my boys; we all contribute a pick or agree upon a few picks on the slate that we like… We then throw in a few bucks each (I’m talking like a zyn or a few beers worth) and let it ride! On the few successful occasions that I’ve been a part of, it makes for an epic day of sports and typically ends with a celebration thanks to the newfound wealth we’ve acquired! Win or lose, very minimal pain with plenty to gain.

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NBA
Tade Deadline = New Looks; Plus Final Stretch Before the All-Star Break

• It is with great remorse that I’m now unable to provide y’all with deep dives going forward… for that information, you’ll have to subscribe to LRT+ and receive daily betting slips which include our model predictions along with daily line movements, betting volume, and a host of other valuable information.

  Now with that being said, I will of course still point you guys in the right direction and home in on some KPI’s for some featured matchups this weekend. 

• Moves were made this week as we reached the trade deadline…We didn’t see the Blockbusters like last year (featuring KD, Kyrie, among others) But if you're curious how things shook up or want to see every transaction/trade made this season? Check out these links 👇
  NBA trade tracker: Timeline of every deal this season - ESPN

  NBA trade deadline grades for all 30 teams - CBSSports
  
  Saturday 2/10/2024 - Primetime Games
  Oklahoma City Thunder (35-16) @ Dallas Mavericks (29-23) - 3:00pm ET. (NBA TV)
  Want to see all of the key stats and storylines surrounding this game? click here 👉 Thunder vs. Mavericks (Preview) - Data Skrive
  
  Phoenix Suns (31-21) @ Golden State Warriors (24-25) - 8:30pm ET. (ABC)
  Want to see all of the key stats and storylines surrounding this game? click here 👉 Suns vs. Warriors (Preview) - Data Skrive
  

PGA TOUR
Waste Management Phoenix Open

• For the leaderboard and tournament information, click here 👉 PGA

• We pick up on day 2 of the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Due to inclement weather, round 1 will resume on Friday 2/9, and hopefully round 2 will be able to conclude before dark. Currently Sahith Theegala sits atop the leaderboard after a blistering first round in some brutal elements. Many big names have only played a few holes so far and conditions should be more favorable as we move into the weekend. The course is wet and so far the greens look soft, carry distance is a premium, and for some reason there’s been a ridiculous amount of chip/pitch in’s so far. Here’s what I’m looking for going into the weekend… with delays and conditions as they are, along with the hype of a the WM venue, I like sticking with proven veterans in this spot. Sahith sure is capable of winning this (as he recently finished top 3 here) but I like my chances if I can snag Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, or Scottie Scheffler, anywhere at +800 or better. Of course, you want to see that they are within striking distance come moving day (moving day is slang for round 3). It’s pretty insane to come back from 12 strokes or more… so I’d say that’s a reasonable ceiling for taking a 36 hole charger. Nevertheless, this is a fun tournament to watch and this year should be no different. Maybe we get lucky and watch our guy come down the final stretch just in time to press our luck on some Super Bowl props Sunday night!
  

DEGEN
Literally the WORST Beat of All Time… Or Greatest Win

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That's a wrap for now, we hope you enjoyed today’s newsletter! We appreciate your continued support, and we'll catch you in the next edition.
-Coach and The Locker Room Staff

Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter is for entertainment and informational purposes only and is not intended as gambling advice. Betting can be addictive and lead to significant financial loss. We do not guarantee the accuracy of betting predictions and disclaim any liability for any personal loss directly or indirectly caused by following the tips. You must be of legal gambling age to engage in betting. We encourage responsible gambling. If you have a gambling problem, please contact 1-800-662-4357.