Analysis + Prediction

NFL Conference Preview

AFC Championship:

Sunday 1/28/2024 @3:00pm EST. (CBS)

Kansas City Chiefs (+165) @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) 

Game Total: 45 (-110)

Baltimore, Maryland. M&T Bank Stadium.

Weather Forecast: 45 °F, likely rain, wind 10mph NE

• Boy is this game going to be a good one… Lamar and the Raven’s serve as the last line of defense for everybody hoping not to see Taylor Swift and Jackson Mahomes in Las Vegas in two weeks… but maybe you want to see it, we shall see. Alright let’s get down to business… The Ravens defense is nuts… they manhandled the Texans last week, not giving an inch on the line of scrimmage, nor did they allow the Texans to make a single red zone appearance. Lamar continued to be a force both through the air and on the ground. This Raven’s team is a tank and will be a tough out on their home turf. That being said, the Chiefs are making their 6th straight conference championship appearance and they proved they can play on the road as they took down the hottest team in football last week. They look to be in their best form as of the past two weeks but let’s acknowledge this Ravens defense is playing at a level way higher than the Bills or Dolphins defense. Rain could be a factor in this one which is advantageous to the Ravens. Given the rain factor, I’m staying away from the total as it may or may not be in effect. I think the Ravens will win this one but it will be close. Fun fact: Vegas makes the most profit with a Ravens win while the Chiefs cover… give me Chiefs with the points at anything above (+3.5) and be ready to sweat this one out. 

NFC Championship:

Sunday 1/28/2024 @6:30 EST. (FOX)

Detroit Lions (+275) @ San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Game Total: 50.5 (-110)

Santa Clara, California. Levi’s Stadium

Weather Forecast: 71 °F, partly cloudy, winds 6mph NW

• Early money has come in on the 49ers moving this one outside of our key number (-7)… the line sits at (-7.5) so that tells us what the sharks think… It’s been an incredible ride for Dan Campbell’s Lions this season and it’s a very bright future for their club under his leadership. That said, don’t buy into the story here… the Niners have been Super Bowl bound all year and with undeniably the strongest roster on both sides of the ball, I don’t see the Lion’s team coming into the Bay Area and leaving with a victory… or a cover. The Niners did struggle with a scorching hot Packers team but ultimately found a way to move on. Detroit won’t have their 12th man this round and don’t have the firepower to keep up with San Francisco for 60 minutes. If you can snag the Niners for a touchdown or less, I like it but otherwise, I’m not getting anywhere on this board. The total is high but could easily go either way… of course I need action on the game so I’m going to rock up and pay the juice for CMC anytime touchdown. 

• Message us on X @ Lockeroomtalk_ and let us know what you’re taking! 

If you're as excited as I am about the epic Conference Championships this weekend, click here to check out this awesome YouTube video from NFL Throwbacks, highlighting the top 10 conference championships of all time!

Analysis + Prediction

NCAAB Value Spots

• Ole Miss @ Texas A&M - Chris Beard has quickly turned things around in Oxford in his first year and currently sits at 16-3 with all 3 losses coming in SEC play. Catching 7 and the hook is a lot and especially against a team like Texas A&M who just doesn’t blow teams out… Of course, Wade Taylor IV could drop 40 but if he has to do that, it's probably because this game is close. Give me the rebels and the points and get ready to sweat down the stretch.

• Kentucky @ Arkansas - Another top ranked blue blood on the road… it’s just a fact, biggest game of the year in Fayetteville. They took down Duke earlier this season in the same building and I imagine the atmosphere will be even better. If Arkansas superstar Tramon Mark suits up, watch out for those hogs on Saturday. 

• Kanas @ Iowa State - Road games have been tough for the Jayhawks this year and Saturday they find themselves in one of the toughest places to play in the country… Des Moines, Iowa. Yes you read that correctly, deceivingly so, this is a brutal place to play and the Cyclones have a good squad to back it up.

• Kansas State @ Houston - Battle between the kitties on Saturday, the cougars host the wildcats. Houston boasts arguably the best backcourt in the country and is nearly impossible to beat at home. Kansas State is down this year after losing the stars who made their March Madness run last year. I think Houston’s smothering defense will be too much for them to handle and if they can knock their shots down on the other end, Houston should blow em out.

News

Kayshon Boutte Scandal

Want to hear more about the NFL Player who was arrested for creating fake gambling accounts and placing over 8900 wagers while he was a student-athlete at LSU? Click here to watch a 5 minute take from Pat McAfee and co.

Model Predictions

NHL

Thou Model Hath Spoketh…

Saturday 1/27/2024:

• Arizona Coyotes @ Carolina Hurricanes - Hurricanes -1.5 (1.5U)

• Florida Panthers @ New York Islanders - Panthers -1.5 (1U)

• Montreal Canadiens @ Pittsburgh Penguins - Penguins -1.5 (1.5U)

Analysis + Prediction

Tennis - Australian Open

Championship match: Sunday 1/28 @ 3:30am EST.

Melbourne, Australia 

Network: ESPN

(4) Jannik Sinner (-260) vs (3) Daniil Medvedev (+210)

• Jannik Sinner enters this championship match on a madddd heater; after cruising into the semi-finals, he faced the Djoker (24 time Grand Slam champion ‘GOAT’) on Thursday…where Sinner proceeded to dominate the world’s best! On the other side of the net, we have Daniil Medvedev, who somehow finds himself in this championship match… It has not come easy for the 3 seed, as he had to overcome a 2 set deficit on multiple occasions this tournament (most recently in the semis against Alexander Zverev on Friday morning). 

• The Pick? Jannik (-4.5 games) & (-1.5 sets) I like Jannik to breakthrough here with his first Grand Slam title. It’s simple, Sinner’s looked dominant all tournament, he’s well rested compared to Medvedev, and he went 3-0 against Medvedev in 2023, proving to be a challenge for Medvedev in their current forms. Now I’ll give credit to Daniil for making this far, especially with how many games this man has played and the insane amount of double faults that he has had to overcome, he is a top player in the world. But I see him falling short here and I don’t think it's going to be very close… give me Jannik across the board. 

• Want to read more about what the analysts think? Check out these articles… 👇👇👇

• Australian Open Championship Preview (Bleacher Report)

• Australian Open Championship Preview (Sporting News)

• Australian Open Championship Preview (ATP Tour)

Case Study

Timing your Wagers pt.2

Last week we talked about how lines move from the time the betting window opens and closes… the direction of line movement represents where money is being placed because the book makers want to have equal money on both sides of the wager. And it’s the professionals a.k.a “sharps” who exploit favorable early lines and pile money in early that ultimately moves the markets. Okay if you're still following my logic here, last week we got a prime example of how this works… you may recall I said “We may have missed the best time to take the under in the Texans vs Ravens game” (opened at 46, closed at 43). Now the game finished right in the sweet spot at 44 total points (Ravens 34 - Texans 10). This is an absolute prime example of how the sharps saw an edge, exploited it early in the week, and then when the public piled in over the weekend, those who took the under paid the price… (late over bettors can graciously thank the sharps). Just something for all you degens to be aware of going forward. If you see a major line swing, tread lightly…!

^{Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter is for entertainment and informational purposes only and is not intended as gambling advice. Betting can be addictive and lead to significant financial loss. We do not guarantee the accuracy of betting predictions and disclaim any liability for any personal loss directly or indirectly caused by following the tips. You must be of legal gambling age to engage in betting. We encourage responsible gambling. If you have a gambling problem, please contact 1-800-662-4357.}

That's a wrap for now, we hope you enjoyed today’s newsletter!

We appreciate your continued support, and we'll catch you in the next edition.

-Coach and The Locker Room Staff