Analysis + Prediction

NCAAF: Ohio State vs Penn State

Offensive Dynamics

Ohio State, with a victory over Notre Dame, has a more decorated resume. However, Penn State's defense, a unit that leads the nation, cannot be underestimated. The Nittany Lions have been dominant, particularly in the air, allowing a mere 121.2 passing yards per game. This defensive prowess will be tested against Ohio State’s QB Kyle McCord, a player known for his productivity but also his vulnerability under pressure.

The McCord Conundrum

McCord’s performance metrics reveal a significant drop in passer rating under pressure, plummeting from 127.6 to 51.4. This susceptibility plays into the hands of Penn State’s defense, ranked third nationally in pass rush. The Nittany Lions will aim to exploit this weakness, capitalizing on McCord’s 3.6% turnover-worthy play percentage.

The Betting Angle

The betting landscape is intriguing. Penn State, despite its undefeated status and 6-0 record against the spread, is receiving more than a field goal in this colossal rivalry. The Nittany Lions’ strength of schedule, or lack thereof, is a contributing factor. Yet, their top-ranked defense, led by Manny Diaz, is expected to be a significant determinant in this encounter.

Prediction

In a game where defensive mastery is expected to take center stage, the under 45.5 bet appears promising. Both teams boast elite defenses, with Ohio State yet to concede 20 points in a game this season. Penn State’s defense, particularly its pass rush and secondary, is anticipated to neutralize Ohio State’s aerial threat.

The prediction leans towards a close, low-scoring affair, with Penn State’s defense being the pivotal factor. The Nittany Lions are expected to keep the game within reach, capitalizing on McCord’s vulnerabilities under pressure. The under 45.5 is a compelling pick, with both defenses expected to dominate proceedings.

In the realm of same-game parlays, combining the Penn State moneyline and the under presents value. A Penn State victory is anticipated to be anchored by its defense, making the under a complementary selection. The Nittany Lions’ ability to disrupt McCord and force turnovers, coupled with Drew Allar’s steady, interception-free performance, sets the stage for a potential upset in a defensively dominated contest.

The Buckeyes may edge a victory, but expect the Nittany Lions to cover the spread, underscoring the value in Penn State +4 and the under 45.5. The defensive units are predicted to be the stars of the show in a game where points will be at a premium. Historical data also favors Penn State; under James Franklin, the Nittany Lions have covered in their last three visits to Columbus.

Analysis + Prediction

NCAAF: Wisconsin vs Illinois

The Scenario

The Wisconsin Badgers, with a 4-2 overall record and a 2-1 standing in the Big Ten, are set to face the Illinois Fighting Illini, who are currently 3-4 overall and 1-3 in the conference. The Badgers are coming off a stinging 15-6 loss to Iowa, a game that saw their starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai sidelined with a broken hand. The Illini, on the other hand, are riding the wave of a close 27-24 victory over Maryland.

The Badgers' Challenge

Wisconsin's offense is in a state of flux. The loss of Mordecai is a significant blow, and the team is now forced to rely on backup Braedyn Locke. In the game against Iowa, Locke went 15/30 for 122 yards and an interception. The Badgers' defense, despite holding Iowa to just 37 passing yards and 200 rushing yards, couldn’t compensate for the offense’s struggles. The team is now facing the challenge of reconfiguring their offense and finding ways to score without their starting quarterback.

The Illini’s Momentum

Illinois is coming into this game with a boost of confidence. Quarterback Luke Altmyer’s performance against Maryland, where he threw for 206 yards and two touchdowns, and Kaden Feagin’s 84 rushing yards and a touchdown, showcased an offense that can be potent. The defense, although not stellar, managed to limit Maryland’s run game, a factor that contributed significantly to their victory.

The Betting Angle

Wisconsin, even with their quarterback woes, opened up as four-point favorites. However, the dynamics of the game suggest a closer contest. Illinois, playing at home and with Wisconsin dealing with injuries, has an opportunity to exploit the Badgers’ unsettled offense. The Illini’s strategy would likely involve forcing the Badgers to throw the ball, putting the game in Locke’s hands, while establishing their own run game to control the clock.

The Prediction

The momentum from Illinois’s recent win and Wisconsin’s quarterback situation tilt the scales slightly in favor of the Illini. Expect a game where both teams focus on the run, leading to a lower-scoring affair. The Badgers will rely heavily on their defense to keep them in the game, while the Illini will look to exploit Wisconsin’s offensive uncertainties.

Illinois has the tools and the home-field advantage to not only cover the spread but potentially secure a win. The prediction here is for Illinois to cover the 2.5 point spread, with the total game score staying under 42.5, as both teams’ emphasis on the run and ongoing offensive issues lead to a game where defenses shine.

Key Points to Consider for Bettors

• Wisconsin’s offense is hampered by the loss of their starting quarterback, putting pressure on a defense that has been solid but not spectacular.

• Illinois is riding the momentum of a significant conference win and has the home-field advantage.

• The emphasis on the run game from both teams, due to various factors, is likely to lead to a lower-scoring game.

• Illinois’s defense has an opportunity to capitalize on Wisconsin’s unsettled quarterback situation.

Final Verdict

Illinois to cover the 2.5 point spread, with the total staying under 42.5. The Illini’s momentum, coupled with the Badgers’ offensive challenges, sets the stage for a tightly contested, defense-oriented game.

Sports Trivia

Ohio State vs Penn State:

1. Who was the Ohio State head coach before Ryan Day took over in 2019?

2. Which Penn State player won the Heisman Trophy in 1973?

3. What was the highest-scoring game between Ohio State and Penn State, and in which year did it occur?

4. Which Ohio State player was drafted highest in the 2021 NFL Draft?

Wisconsin vs Illinois:

6. Who is the all-time leading rusher for Wisconsin?

7. In which year did Illinois last defeat Wisconsin before their surprising win in 2019?

8. What's the name of Wisconsin's stadium where they have a strong home-field advantage?

9. Who was the Illinois head coach before Bret Bielema?

Answers below!

Game Previews

Trivia Answers

Ohio State vs Penn State:

1. Urban Meyer

2. John Cappelletti

3. 63-14, Ohio State victory in 2013

4. Justin Fields, selected 11th overall by the Chicago Bears

Wisconsin vs Illinois:

6. Ron Dayne

7. 2007

8. Camp Randall Stadium

9. Lovie Smith

That's a wrap for now, we hope you enjoyed today’s newsletter!

We appreciate your continued support, and we'll catch you in the next edition.

-Coach and The Locker Room Staff