Analysis + Prediction

NFL Divisional Preview & Picks

AFC

Saturday 1/20/2023 @4:30pm EST. (ESPN/ABC)

Houston Texans (+350) @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) 

Game Total: 46 (-110)

Baltimore, Maryland. M&T Bank Stadium.

Weather Forecast: 26 °F, Partly Cloudy, wind 19mph NW

• Weather could be a factor in this one, if the cold winds get gusting, the ground game will become a premium. With that in mind, we’ve already seen some outsize sharp bets come in on the total under moving it all the way down to (43.5). The spread has held in check so far but with the bulk of the bets to start piling in as we near kickoff, don’t be surprised to see this line move to (10.5/11). Stroud and the Texans are playing excellent football right now and I hope they keep this one competitive, but don’t lose sight of the fact that they are on the road, facing the MVP in Lamar Jackson and co, along with a stout Raven’s defense. These two teams met right here in week 1 and although that was a long time ago, the game was not very competitive. This Raven’s team has their sights set on the Super Bowl and as great as this historic run for rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback CJ Stroud has been, this will be their undoubtedly toughest challenge yet. We may have missed the best time to take the under, but I do think there is value on the Texans at +10.5 or better, but I wouldn’t be rushing in to get anywhere on this board.

Sunday 1/21/2024 @6:30pm EST. (CBS)

Kansas City Chiefs (+125) @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

Game Total: 45.5 (-110)

Orchard Park, New York. Highmark Stadium

Weather Forecast: 18 °F, Snow, winds 14mph SW

• Buffalo is arguably the hottest team in football right now… going into week 14 of the regular season, they only had a 5% chance of making the playoffs. Now, they are the 2 seed in the AFC and will host their 2nd playoff game in a row. I can guarantee you that Bills’ fans wanted this matchup more than anything after the Chiefs sent them packing in dramatic fashion during the 2021 postseason. The Allen vs Mahomes matchup has become one of the NFL’s best modern rivalries as this matchup sets up to be another classic chapter in the story. That being said, I think the value lies in Bill’s (-2.5/3). If you want to pay up for the moneyline security, I don’t blame you. Kansas City has been suspect this year and as impressive as they looked last week, I’m not sure that I’m very impressed with their win against a declining Dolphins team, who were no match for the Chiefs in last week's elements. The Bill’s on the other hand have been on a roll and don’t look to be slowing down. You know they have the revenge motive on their side as they’ve been marinating in season ending defeat by the Chiefs on multiple occasions. Furthermore, this will be the first time they host a playoff duel vs the Chiefs as their previous shortcomings occurred at Arrowhead. I’m not touching the total in this one as the weather could be a factor, plus the Chiefs boast arguably the best defense they’ve ever had during this dynasty run of theirs; yet I would feel pretty silly taking an under in a Mahomes vs Allen matchup. I like the Bills to win and I’m going to double down on any spread that is within 3 points. 

NFC

Saturday 1/20/2024 @8:15 EST. (FOX)

Green Bay Packers (+350) @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

Game Total: 50 (-110)

Santa Clara, California. Levi’s Stadium

Weather Forecast: 58 °F, Slight Chance of Rain, wins 9mph SE

• Green Bay cruised into this Divisional matchup without breaking a sweat last week in Dallas. It’s hard to say whether we learned more about who the Packers are or who the Cowboys are not based on last week… Personally, I think its some combination of both. Meanwhile, San Francisco has had the NFC all locks all year and after being snubbed by injuries last season, they’ve looked dominant throughout the season and oddsmakers seem to believe they will continue to perform that way come Saturday night. It’s easy to get caught up in Green Bay’s success last week, but let's not forget that plenty of times in the past, a team comes out strong in the wildcard round just to get sent home in convincing fashion by one of the top seeded teams. Weather shouldn’t become much of a factor in this one and I have a much harder time seeing Green Bay repeat last week’s performance against this 49ers squad. The Niners have their sights set on a Super Bowl and Shanahan won’t let them go down at home, in their first bout. The total is high, but the 49ers have all of the firepower in the world needed to put up points and Jordan Love has been great as of late and should be slinging it from the jump… I like the over at anything below (51.5) and I’m confident in the 49ers ability to win the game outright. I may lay the points with San Fran at (-9.5) or better, but I definitely won’t take the Packers in this one. 

Sunday 1/21/2024 @3pm EST. (NBC)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+235) @ Detroit Lions (-7)

Game Total: 47 (-110)

Detroit, Michigan. Ford Field

Weather Forecast: N/A - Indoors

• This feels like the toughest game to cap this weekend… It’s hard to say we learned anything about the Bucs in their beat down of the Eagles last week; I think every other playoff team could have done the same thing in the same position. Flip to the other side and the Lion’s looked unstoppable early on last week, but almost found a way to give it up at the end. Now let’s examine the facts, there's definitely no other city more high on life, when it comes to football, than the city of Detroit right now. Michigan wins the National Championship, Lions break the curse and are hosting consecutive home playoff games, you know the Lions will be playing with a 12th man come Sunday. It’s truly remarkable what Dan Campbell has done to his football team. But let’s not count out the Bucs, they’re scrappy and led by Baker Mayfield, for whatever one may think, who is a true competitor and you know he and his squad will be ready to play. Todd Bowles' defense is stingy and makes you earn everything, but they will be faced with a much tougher task containing Jared Goff and his cast of explosive offensive weapons. I’m staying away from the total in this one because I could see it go either way. We’re probably going to find out early on which way the game is going to go… but I’m banking on the Buc’s to keep this one competitive. I don’t think they win outright but even if it comes down to a backdoor cover, we know Baker will give it his all until the final whistle. If you can find this line for a touchdown or higher, it's worth a sprinkle. 

Recap

Wildcard Recap

AFC

• Texans rout the Browns as home underdogs (+120), behind CJ Stroud’s near perfect performance (157.3 passer rating), to go along with a pair of pick 6’s. 

• The Chiefs grind out the Dolphins 26-7, as they controlled this one wire to wire without ever really putting the spread (-4.5) in jeopardy… The conditions were frigid to say the least, just ask Patrick Mahomes’s helmet! (MSN)

• JAllen and the Bills cruise past the Steelers 31-17 but the (-10) cover was not as smooth…the backdoor was left open for Rudolph to lead a 2 minute drill and deliver the cover, but with no timeouts and little left the play for, their last efforts came up in vain for Steelers (+10) bettors.

NFC

• Green Bay pummels the Cowboys, in Jerry World, coming through at (+7) and (+290) on the money line. Whether you believe this game was signs of things to come for the Jordan Love/ Matt LaFleur led Packers organization or the tragedy of the Cowboy’s that we’ve become all too familiar with, this one was never competitive. Greenbay came out firing on all cylinders, notably a 157.3 passer rating for Jordan Love, the defense forcing turnovers, and veteran running back Aaron Jones reaching paydirt on 3 separate occasions. Meanwhile, Dallas seemed to be in a daze for the first 28 minutes of the game where they found themselves down 27-0, having committed 2 turnovers and yet to force the Packers to even punt.  

• Lions break the curse with first playoff win since 1992! This was hands down the best game of the weekend, the Lions won the game 24-23, but the Rams covered at (+3). So many storylines involved, Stafford returning to Detroit, Detroit not having won a playoff game in 32 years, Goff playing against the team who deemed him unworthy of being their quarterback… and it sure lived up to it all. After a rampage of scoring the first half, defense settled in in the second half, and just when you thought the Lion’s were going to blow it yet again, Coach Dan Campbell put the game in his quarterback’s hands and Goff delivered a strike to Amon Ra St. Brown which ultimately sealed the victory.

• Baker and the Bucs put the Eagle’s out of their misery of a playoff run… The final score was a bit shocking to some with the Bucs winning and covering as home dawgs (+3) and (+130), but for anyone following the tailspin of the Eagles the last month and a half, you may not be so surprised. Credit is due to the Buccaneers for playing good football and making plays… but the story is about what happened to this Eagles team who were Super Bowl runner-ups and started the season 10-1. Some say it’s injuries, others say its personnel changes, but whatever the reason, there was not much hope for anyone with money on the Eagles Monday night. 

Analysis + Prediction

NBA

I rarely bet on the NBA, as the regular season feels like a crap shoot most of the time, but typically you can find some value hidden within tight travel schedules, player in-actives and long term organizational motives. One trend I especially like is betting on unproven player props, we’re talking guys who need to solidify a long term job, and are given the opportunity to prove themselves whether it's a game against a bad team or the guy(s), ahead of the said player, in the rotation are sitting out or injured. I will have more props and picks for you guys going forward but for this week I will not have any action on the NBA. We do have some good primetime games on Friday (1/19) featuring the Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors. Saturday (1/20) the top two teams in the west clash in Minnesota featuring two rising organizations in the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Analysis + Prediction

NCAAB

College hoops is back and if last week wasn’t a taste of the madness that we so love, I don’t know what is… #1-3 were all taken down… by unranked opponents! MAdNeSs! College hoops is always filled with upsets and parody but this year feels like we are getting an extra dose of it all. With that said, I don’t think anyone is safe of defeat so let’s break down some key matchups to watch this weekend. ** As of right now, the odds for Saturday’s games have not been released.

Baylor @ Texas - I like Baylor here, they gave one away in overtime @ Kansas State on Tuesday night. Baylor has a good team and I imagine Scott Drew will have his guys ready to avenge that loss come Saturday morning. Meanwhile, Terry’s Longhorns have yet to find the magic they had during last season’s tournament run. They have been suspect at best and don’t seem to have the ability to contain this Baylor squad. I think this could be a double-digit victory for the Bears, be watching for this line to come out.

Creighton @ Seton Hall - Seton Hall is nice. Don’t be fooled by the fact they don’t have a number next to their name… In fact, I bet they will win this game and come Monday morning they will be ranked, and Creighton will not be. Alright so here it is, Seton Hall has a veteran squad and they have been a force in the Big East so far. Creighton on the other hand has some talented players but they lack depth and are coming off of a tough loss at UCONN Wednesday night. Now you would think Creighton is getting pretty desperate for a win. But I don’t think they will get it in Jersey on Saturday morning. The Pirates are playing great ball right now and still have more to prove. I'm very, very curious what the line will be in this one, but I like Seton Hall to win by a few possessions at least. 

Alabama @ Tennessee - This game is setting up to be a shootout. Both teams are on a roll of late and as I don’t want to back either side, I do see the potential for a fast-pace high scoring affair. Alabama is a roll (no pun intended) and has been scoring a ridiculous number of points while doing so. Tennessee boasts a veteran group led by the hottest player in the country right now, Knect, but their defense is just okay for a team ranked 6th in the country. Now this total will be set pretty high but don’t be discouraged… if the books set it high, it’s because they’re expecting a lot of points. And I’m expecting even more.

Iowa State @ TCU - TCU is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Cincinnati and you know they want to get the taste out of their mouths. Dixon has a good squad this year and will have his guys ready to go on Saturday. Iowa State is a good team (recently defeating #2 Houston) as well, but they haven’t done much else this season and recently got worked by #20 BYU. I don’t think they’re ready to handle what’s waiting for them in Fort Worth this weekend. I’m guessing TCU will be favored by 4-6 points but anything above that and I will probably have to let this one go in the wind. 

Georgia @ Kentucky - Georgia is good, they’ve got size, they have a veteran backcourt who can make plays and take care of the ball, and a great supporting cast around them. Kentucky is Kentucky and loaded with young talent across the board. If Kentucky comes out and is able to get good looks and is hitting their shots, this one may not be close… But I think Georgia has the firepower to keep this thing close and probably cover a 7–10-point spread. They got a big road victory @ South Carolina on Tuesday and have shown all season that they can win close games. Kentucky on the other hand is young (yet very talented) but has struggled in close games. They’ll probably win the game but given that this is Georgia’s biggest game of the season, I like the chances that they will stay within striking distance wire to wire. If this line falls within 6 points however, it may be too dangerous to touch. We shall wait and see what the line is… and how dangerous we’re feeling on Saturday evening.

This is where I see value on Saturday’s slate, but for a list of the full slate of games along with tip-off times, click (ESPN - NCAAM Hoops - 1/20/2024).

Analysis + Prediction

NHL

NHL

The NHL regular season is in full swing these days. Now I personally do not follow or root for any particular team, thus leaving me a bit on the outside looking in when it comes to actively following the league… However, I do occasionally bet on games and check in on what’s happening from time to time… so with that in mind, here’s what I got for you this weekend. 

• From Thursday the 18th - Sunday the 21st, there are 33 scheduled games. That means we have 33 Totals to choose from, 33 puck lines to choose from, and 33 moneylines… Here’s what I’m looking for - using this link  NHL Stats | NHL.com you’ll be directed to a ranking of all the teams with their records and subsequently all of their relevant statistics. The key metric I look at is Shots/GP and SA/GP which stand for shots for per game and shots against per game, respectively. The league average for Shots/GP is 30.68 and SA/GP is 30.62. Standard Deviation is 2.28 and 2.23 respectively. Keeping this in mind… Here's what I’ve got my eye on this weekend.

Thursday (1/18)

Arizona Coyotes @ Vancouver Canucks - two below average offenses paired with very average defenses… I will be targeting the under here.

Saturday (1/20)

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Vancouver Canucks - we find ourselves back in Vancouver, this time with a strong visiting offense in Toronto vs a weak offense in Vancouver. Both teams represent average defensive capabilities, there may be some value in Toronto getting out of this one with the victory.

There you have it… not much action for me on the NHL this weekend, as I strictly follow my model’s analysis (no fundamental analysis involved). Again, this is not betting advice, just a peek inside how I see the board this weekend.

Analysis + Prediction

PGA

This week the PGA Tour makes its debut in the lower 48 states in Palm Springs, California for the American Express Tournament (January 18-21). The players will be competing for a share of the $8.4 million dollar purse. The past 16 years it's taken a score of at least 20 under par in order to win; and with the field loaded with talent and the weather looking excellent per usual, I expect this year to be no different featuring a lot of red numbers. 

The format of this tournament is a bit unique, as the first 3 rounds will be held at 3 different golf courses (La Quinta Country Club, Pete Dye Stadium Course, and the Nicklaus Tournament Course). In addition, the pros will be playing alongside amateur players in every group. The final round will be held at the Pete Dye Stadium course and will not feature any of the amateur players. 

Power Rankings: The American Express - PGA TOUR

Outlook: The American Express - PGA TOUR

Betting Odds/First Round Tee Times: The American Express - PGA TOUR

The Official American Express Golf Tournament Website

Here are a few guys we have our eyes on this week.

To win:

Sungjae Im (+2000) - With an excellent past record at this event (never finishing outside of the top 20) and a golf game that is built to go low, I expect to see Sungjae in contention on Sunday and given that expectation, I’m willing to try my luck at these odds that a few things go his way and he’ll be lifting the trophy come Sunday afternoon.

Tom Kim (+2500) - Coming off a breakout season last year, rising star Tom Kim makes his season debut this week. Having his breakthrough win last year, Tom has proven his ability to contend and win. He has had success in the past at this event and I believe his game suits this event well. At these odds, it's definitely worth a sprinkle because if his game is in shape, he will be in contention come Sunday. 

Justin Thomas (+2500) - JT is coming off his worst season as an established professional where he failed to make the Tour Championship for the first time in a long time. That being said, he did make a push towards the end of the season and he still was elected as a captains pick to represent the USA in the Ryder Cup. So, if I had to guess, JT has been working hard all off season to get the bad taste of last season out of his mouth. Look for him to come out hot and at these odds, it's worth backing that he’ll do it.

J.T. Poston (+3300) - Poston seemed to be on every leaderboard at the end of last season and the start of this season has been no different. With a pair of top 6 finishes in the two Hawaii events, and a pair of top 10 finishes in his career at the American Express… the man has proven he can go low and he has experience contending at this event. He will probably find himself in contention come Sunday so at this number it feels like a no brainer. 

Chris Kirk (+4000) - The case for Kirk is simple… He won The Sentry two weeks ago, he finished T18 last week, and he finished T3 at this event a year ago. Add all of that together and regardless of the name, I will sprinkle on anyone with that track record at these odds. Don’t say we didn’t tell you if Chris Kirk is your champion come Sunday.

Dark Horses (Great Top 10 value):

Matthieu Pavon (+12500) - A 31yr old PGA Tour rookie, Pavon enters this season with full status from the new DP World Tour exemption from last year. He has won on the DP Tour before and last week, in his first official start as a full time Tour member, he finished T7 and proved that he can hang with anyone. It may be a bit early for him to breakthrough with a win this week but there is value in a top 10 from Pavon this week. Nonetheless, his name needs to be on everyone’s radar as we move through the season.

Carl Yuan (+15000) - Looking to be China’s first Tour winner, Yuan came oh so very close last week at the Sony Open finishing 1 shot back of the winning score. In his only prior appearance at The American Express, he missed the cut, so although he does not have that going for him, he has been playing well lately with two top 5’s in his last 5 tournament appearances. You can try your luck on him winning, but at a minimum you should get some nice juice on him finishing inside the top 10/20.

Case Study

Timing your Wagers

One simple trend to be aware of is the movement of lines between the opening and closing windows. Typically, if you are on the side of the favorite, you want to bet that line as early as possible and consequently if you want to bet on the underdog, wait until the very last moment in order to get the best odds. Of course, these trends are not ironclad, as the line movement is subject to all sorts of variables (injuries, weather, in-actives, front office changes, etc…) that can swing the line in the other direction… but generally speaking more money comes in on the favorite and as a result, bookmakers move the line in favor of equalizing the amount of money on both sides…(this is how the books can guarantee a profit). Early line movement is also indicative of where the “sharp” or professional money is placed. These are good trends to be aware of in the midst of betting something as hyper-focused as the NFL playoffs. 

For example - in last week's wildcard matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins, the Chiefs opened up at (-3) home favorites. When the betting window closed right before kickoff, the line had moved to Chiefs (-4.5). The game result was a sweat free cover from the Chiefs, winning by 19 points, however early bettors received a much more favorable number at (-3) versus (-4.5)... The numbers 3 and 7 are considered the “key” numbers in football game spreads.

That's a wrap for now, we hope you enjoyed today’s newsletter!

We appreciate your continued support, and we'll catch you in the next edition.

-Coach and The Locker Room Staff