Analysis + Prediction

NFL: Bills vs. Buccaneers

Team Overview

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Record 3-3

• Defensive Prowess They've been a fortress, ranking 6th in the NFL by allowing only 17.3 points per game.

• Turnover Differential Their +7 turnover differential is not just good; it's elite, placing them 2nd overall in the league. What is Turnover Margin does a solid job explaining this metric.

• Offensive Struggles Averaging just 17.2 points per game, they're placed 27th in scoring. The potential absence of their quarterback, Baker Mayfield, due to a knee injury, is a significant concern.

Buffalo Bills

• Record 4-3

• Offensive Powerhouse Ranking 3rd in scoring, they've been lighting up the scoreboard with an average of 28.3 points per game.

• Defensive Wall They've allowed a mere 16.9 points per game, positioning them 5th in scoring defense.

• Quarterback Play Josh Allen's resilience, especially evident in the recent game against the Patriots, showcases his ability to lead under pressure.

• Ground Game Concerns Averaging 3.4 yards per carry, their running game might be their Achilles' heel.

Deep Dive into Metrics

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) A metric that evaluates a team's efficiency by comparing their performance to a league average based on the situation in games. The Bills, with their high DVOA, especially on the offensive front, theoretically have an advantage. However, the Buccaneers' strong turnover differential indicates their ability to capitalize on opponents' errors, potentially turning the tide. DVOA is a valuable metric worth exploring. For a comprehensive understanding of how and when to apply it, consider referring to DVOA for Dummies.

Air Yards Mayfield, with an average of 8.2 air yards per attempt, indicates his willingness to take risks and challenge the secondary defense. In contrast, Josh Allen averages 7.9, suggesting both QBs are set to provide some long-ball entertainment. Get a clearer picture by Understanding Air Yards.

Yards After Catch (YAC) The Buccaneers' receivers, with an average YAC of 5.3, have a slight edge over the Bills' 4.8, indicating potential game-changing plays post-catch.

Pressure Rate The Bills' defense, with a pressure rate of 31%, has been slightly more effective at unsettling opposing QBs compared to the Buccaneers' 28%. This could be a significant factor, especially if Mayfield is absent.

Red Zone Efficiency The Buccaneers, with a 64% efficiency in the red zone, might have a slight advantage over the Bills' 59%, indicating potential higher scoring opportunities.

Tackling Efficiency The Buccaneers, with a tackling efficiency of 92%, might be crucial in preventing big plays from the Bills' dynamic playmakers, who have an efficiency of 89%.

Betting Approaches

• Moneyline The Bills, with their 4-3 record and ranking 3rd in scoring, appear to be the safer bet. Their offensive proficiency, combined with the potential absence of the Buccaneers' QB, Baker Mayfield, tilts the scales in their favor. It would be strategic to incorporate this approach into any parlays you're considering.

• Point Spread The Bills are favored by 8.5 points. However, the Buccaneers' 6th ranked defense and elite turnover differential suggest they could keep the game closer than anticipated. Betting on the Buccaneers with the +8.5 point spread appears a wise choice.

• Over/Under Set at 42.5 points, the under seems a prudent choice. Both teams boast formidable defenses, with the Buccaneers and Bills allowing 17.3 and 16.9 points per game, respectively. The potential absence of Mayfield might further suppress the Buccaneers' scoring potential.

Final Thoughts

As the Buccaneers and Bills lock horns, there are several on-field dynamics to keep an eye on, especially if you're considering in-game bets:

• Quarterback Play Watch for how often Mayfield and Allen go deep. Their air yards stats suggest they aren't shy about taking shots downfield. Any significant deviation from this could indicate a shift in strategy or pressure from the defense.

• Turnovers Given the Buccaneers' impressive turnover differential, monitor the Bills' ball security. A fumble or interception could swing momentum and be a game-changer.

• Red Zone Efficiency When either team enters the red zone, their efficiency stats come into play. Will the Buccaneers continue their clinical finishes, or will the Bills' defense hold them to field goals?

• Pressure on the QB The Bills have a slightly higher pressure rate. If they can consistently hurry or sack Mayfield, especially in crucial third-down situations, it could tilt the game in their favor.

• Ground Game Despite their offensive prowess, the Bills have shown vulnerability in their running game. If they struggle to establish a run game early on, it might force them to be one-dimensional, relying heavily on passing.

• Tackling Big plays often result from missed tackles. Watch for how effectively each team's defense manages to bring down ball carriers on first contact.

As the action unfolds, these elements, rooted in our pre-game analysis, will be crucial in determining the flow and outcome of the game. For those scouting in-game bets or just keenly observing, these are the battles within the battle.

Sports Trivia

1. Who is the head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the 2023 season?

2. In which year did the Buffalo Bills last win the Super Bowl before 2023?

3. Which stadium will host the Buccaneers vs. Bills game on October 26, 2023?

4. Who holds the record for the most touchdowns in a single season for the Buffalo Bills?

5. Before Baker Mayfield, who was the starting quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2022 season?

Answers below!

Game Preview

Trivia Answers

1. Todd Bowles

2. The Bills have not won a Super Bowl before 2023.

3. Raymond James Stadium

4. O.J. Simpson

5. Tom Brady

That's a wrap for now, we hope you enjoyed today’s newsletter!

We appreciate your continued support, and we'll catch you in the next edition.

-Coach and The Locker Room Staff