🏆INSANE College Hoops Day: Super Bowl Preview + Hoops + Education

Welcome to the Locker Room: where we provide predictive data, streamlined analysis, and actionable insights and projections! Our goal is to equip you with the knowledge and tools to be a well-informed bettor, or just enhance your overall sports viewing experience.

Today’s Playbook

🏈 Super Bowl Outlook
🏀 NBA Weekend
🏀 College Hoops
📖 Education
💰 Bad Beats w/ SVP

NFL
Super Bowl LVIII: Conference champs, early lines, coins

AFC championship - Spagnuolo and the Chiefs D were dealingggg last Sunday. It shouldn’t be a total surprise given that their the best defense in football… but what is surprising is that their offense scored 0 points in the 2nd half… yet still won by a touchdown (on the road, against the “#1 ranked team whose offense is led by the league’s MVP”). My point is this, the Chiefs are INSANE... but it’s a look we’re not used to and it’s taken some time to get used to it. Just as any great dynasty has to do, the Chiefs are evolving and adapting to their roster and using schemes that maximize what they have this year… and right now I think it’s fair to say they are hitting their best stride heading into the Super Bowl. The defense is nuts, containing high IQ superstars at every level, easily the best defense in the league… still no one on earth can figure out how to cover Kelce, Isaiah Pacheco is the hardest runner of all time, and Mahomes is as clutch as ever.

NFC Championship:
The 49ers are blessed to be here… I mean literally they completed the “Biggest comeback in NFC Championship history!” And yeah, they have a phenomenal team, they’ve been knocking on the doors for years now and some feel like this is the best chance this group will ever get? But I’m not so sure, that’s two playoff games now where the 49ers were favored by a over a touchdown and ended up having to battle back to barely win in the end. Their defense is amazing on paper… but it was gashed by the Lions run game and Jared Goff was able to routinely move the ball up and down the field. The game came down to a sequence of plays that really swung the momentum and gave the 49ers some life. First, a 60yd bomb passed to Aiyuk that really should have been a pick… I mean the ball hit the Lions DB in the face and bounced into Aiyuk’s hands after he couldn’t even knock the ball down… And then following the touchdown that turned into, the Lions fumbled on the first play of the next drive, turning into back-to-back touchdowns in an instant. Dan Campbell honorably fell on his sword at the end of this game, electing to go for it instead of kicking a field goal in a situation where conventional wisdom would have kicked the field goal.

Bottom Line:
The 49ers eked out two home victories against NFC North opponents and had to battle back in both games. The Chiefs have beaten 3, 11-win teams, including both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in their home stadiums… and they have looked convincing while doing so. The Chiefs have been doing this for years now and are very comfortable playing under the lights. Look yourself in the mirror and ask yourself this, “Is Mahomes really going to lose to Purdy?” The only way is if this whole thing is actually scripted like Adam Schefter said… Schefter Shorts

Line movement: 
The spread opened at 49ers -2.5, the people must be in my camp because the line quickly got bet down to 49ers -1 before slamming on the breaks and reversing course. The line sits at 49ers -2 currently but don’t be surprised to see more volatility over the next 8 days. This is EASILY going to be the most bet on sporting event of all time… I mean a Super Bowl in Vegas sounded impossible just 8 years ago! Currently the public is on the Chiefs as well with 75% of the tickets and 69% of the money… leaving the door cracked open for the Sharps to be filing in on the Niners. Definitely something we will be monitoring throughout the week.

Fun Fact: Coin Toss history 
The Super Bowl coin toss has landed on heads 27 times out of the first 57 Super Bowls. This means that heads has come up 47% of the time, while tails has come up 53% of the time. For a full record, odds and everything else you need to know about betting the coin flip, click here → TheLines.com

NBA
Primetime in MSG, Bucks vs Mavericks shootout?

Saturday 2/3/2024
Los Angeles Lakers (25-25) @ New York Knicks (32-17) - 8:30 ET. (ABC)
- The Lakeshow appears live in Madison Square Garden where they’ll face the scorching hot Knicks, looking for 10 wins in a row on Saturday night. The Knicks currently ranked 3rd in the Eastern Conference and boast an 18-5 record at home while the Lakers are 9th in the West and are a measly 8-17 on the road. This will be game 5 of a 6-game road trip for the Lakers where they are 2-2 so far.
- Unfortunately, our model does not see an edge in this matchup, but I'll give you some stats anyways…The Knicks rank 5th in net offensive and defensive rankings, while the Lakers are 18th. I’m sure the Knicks will be favored by a couple of possessions, but if you find yourself watching the game and the Knicks live odds happen to get down to under 1 possession or better, it’s probably worth tossing a few bones their way.
- For a full analysis from ESPN’s Data Skrive, click here ESPN

Milwaukee Bucks (32-16) @ Dallas Mavericks (26-22) - 8:30 ET.
- Doc Rivers pulls up to the American Airlines Center in search of his first victory as Head Coach of the Bucks. The Bucks are currently 2nd in the Eastern Conference while the Mavericks are 8th in the West. Yet again our model does not see an edge in this game but on a personal note, I like Doc getting his first win come Saturday night.
- The Mavs may be without Kyrie on Saturday (he is currently doubtful) along with a host of other Mavericks. Meanwhile, the Bucks are rested, healthy and coming off back-to-back losses, I can’t imagine they get the turkey… I’m curious to see where this line falls, but it will probably not be released until near game time in lieu of many game time injury decisions. 
- For real time injury updates, click here (Injury Report)

COLLEGE HOOPS
Are we in for the best Saturday of the season?

(4)Houston Cougars @ (8)Kansas Jayhawks (+1.5) @ 4pm ET. (ESPN) 
- Kansas catching points at home is crazy, I honestly can’t remember the last time that ever happened (if it’s ever even happened before). But, it’s warranted… the Cougars are really damn good, they play the toughest defense in the land, their insane on the offensive glass, and are led by a phenomenal backcourt. The Jayhawks core is as good as anyone in the country, Hunter Dickinson is a force to be stopped and Kevin McCullar is playing like the best player in the league right now, but their lack of depth is a serious threat. Australian freshman Johnny Furphy has emerged as a 5th starter for the Jayhawks as of late which has been good. Here's the bottom line: Bill Self’s record in Allen Fieldhouse is like (315-17) and you can count on your hands how many times he’s been an underdawg there… It’s tough to win on the road (especially in Lawrence) and at plus money, I like my chances taking the Jayhawks.

(7)Duke Blue Devils @ (3)North Carolina Tar Heels (-4.5) @ 6:30pm ET. (ESPN)
- Probably the greatest rivalry in college basketball is back today! Of course, it never left but with how well these teams are playing right now, this sets up for one of the best matchups between these two teams we have seen in recent years. Here it is, Duke has struggled in close games, especially against elite opponents, and UNC is as elite as it gets. UNC went down to Georgia Tech earlier this week (GT also beat Duke but can’t beat anyone else in the ACC, it’s actually wild)... I know they will want to avenge that loss and what better opportunity to do so. I lean UNC -4.5 but I will be ready to load the wagon if at any point during the game, I can grab them for -1 or better.

(5)Tennessee @ (10)Kentucky (-1) @ 8:30pm ET. (ESPN)
- The most talented teams in the SEC square off in Rupp Arena tonight. Both are coming off of tough losses this week and are extra driven to bounce back from them… But only one of them can. Personally, I can’t imagine a world where this Kentucky team loses two games at home… but assuming this game is close at the end, I like the maturity and ability of Tennessee down the stretch. They boast the best player in the country in Dalton Knecht and have a veteran backcourt. Kentucky meanwhile is super talented, led by senior Antonio Reeves and easily has the best freshman class in the country. We’ve seen their firepower on display this season but we’ve also seen their lack of defensive discipline and Tennessee is as tough to defend as anyone.

Education
Live Betting

• Live betting is so great; algorithms crunching odds at every twist and turn throughout the course of a game; you would think that there’s gotta be some value hidden within all of those equations! For some people there is much value to be extracted, yet the majority of others attribute the feature as to why they were unable to meet last month’s rent. So which camp do you fall in? Today we’re going to teach you some basic principles for navigating the live betting wheel.

• Here’s what we think, yes there’s value. The books know that there will be ebbs and flows throughout the game, key players injured, momentum swings and late game situations… all of these variables go into the lines they set before the game. Don’t doubt that by the end of the dance, more times than not those numbers are really freaking accurate. Now the trick is this, NEVER take a spread that has moved against the original line… ONLY take lines that have moved in your favor. Pay attention to player rotations, injuries and most importantly team momentum… then strike when you feel the moment is yours! 

• For Example: The closing game line is Knicks -7, the game begins, and the Lakers come out and splash some buckets and build up a nice lead after the first quarter. The live line is now Knicks -1.5… In this situation I would ONLY allow myself to take the Knicks -1.5, and I would NEVER take the Lakers +1.5, because they were originally +7.

Degen
Bad Beats w/ SVP

This week Bad Beats featured multiple games from our talk last week… 1 good, 1 not so good… Go check it out for a good laugh, the pain of degeneracy is real!

Disclaimer: The information in this newsletter is for entertainment and informational purposes only and is not intended as gambling advice. Betting can be addictive and lead to significant financial loss. We do not guarantee the accuracy of betting predictions and disclaim any liability for any personal loss directly or indirectly caused by following the tips. You must be of legal gambling age to engage in betting. We encourage responsible gambling. If you have a gambling problem, please contact 1-800-662-4357.

That's a wrap for now, we hope you enjoyed today’s newsletter!

We appreciate your continued support, and we'll catch you in the next edition.

-Coach and The Locker Room Staff